A seasoned gaming analyst with over a decade of experience in online casinos, specializing in slot machine strategies and player psychology.
On the very date Donald Trump was presented with a tailor-made "award for peace" from his newest ally, FIFA president "Gianni" Infantino, his government published an equally ostentatious national security strategy. This relatively short paper drips with pure Trump and Trumpism. It opens with the typically humble assertion that the president has brought back "the United States and the globe – back from the edge of disaster and disaster."
Even though the document mostly codifies the ongoing actions and statements of Trump and his cabinet, it must be taken as a serious caution for the world, and for Europe specifically.
The document advocates for an assertive form of foreign-policy interference where the US clearly sets the goal of "fostering European strength." Its rhetoric seems taken directly from speeches by Viktor Orbán during the much-discussed refugee crisis of 2015-16: "We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-assurance." Even more ominously, the document claims that Europe's "financial downturn is eclipsed by the real and more stark possibility of cultural extinction."
The entire section dedicated to Europe is steeped in generations of European far-right dogma and rhetoric. The EU and its migration policies are held responsible for "transforming the continent and creating conflict, censorship of free expression and stifling of dissent, plummeting birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-belief." According to the document, if "present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economic power and armed forces powerful enough to remain reliable allies." Indeed, the Trump administration believes that "in a matter of years at the latest, some NATO members will become majority non-European."
"U.S. foreign policy should continue to champion authentic democracy, free speech, and proud celebrations of European nations’ unique heritage and history."
These points carry powerful echoes of two concepts regarded as foundational for contemporary far-right circles. The first is Oswald Spengler's "The Decline of the West," whose thesis on the inevitable fall of civilizations was used by the German far right to criticise the "perversion" and "weakness" of the democratic Weimar Republic. The second is "The Great Replacement," released in 2011 by French novelist Renaud Camus, who translated long-existing "indigenous" fears into a more explicit conspiratorial narrative, accusing European elites of using immigration to substitute rebellious "indigenous" populations and bring in a more submissive and dependent electorate.
It is the nativist fever dream contained in both ideas that gives the Trump administration the right, if not the obligation, to interfere in European affairs, the document implies. And it is clear where it identifies its allies: "The United States urges its ideological partners in Europe to promote this revival of national spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for significant hope."
In other words, the US believes that it is key to its national security to "Restore European strength," and that the European far right is the only movement that can accomplish this. Therefore, its "overarching strategy for Europe" focuses on "fostering opposition to Europe’s present path within European nations" – meaning the far right – and "building up the robust nations of central, eastern, and southern Europe" – specifically "aligned countries that want to restore their former greatness" – such as Hungary and Italy.
While the document stays unclear on methods, it is apparent that a key aim is to pressure Europe to adopt a sweeping policy on freedom of speech, more aligned with the US model – particularly regarding right-wing speech – and not limited to social media. Another is to normalise relations with Russia; or, as the document calls it, to "restore strategic stability with Russia." Although the country is not directly called a future ally, the Trump administration clearly does not regard Russia as an adversary either.
In a broader sense, the national security strategy draws its ideas less from the glorified US of the 1950s and more from the 1823 policy of 1823. Articulated by President James Monroe, this warned European powers not to meddle in the "western hemisphere," which he proclaimed to be the US’s zone of influence. The Trump administration’s policy document vows to "assert and enforce a Trump addition" to the Monroe Doctrine, which entails the US "recruiting" countries worldwide that wish to help safeguard US national interests.
This is entirely new – recall JD Vance’s address at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, where the vice-president unleashed an ideological attack on Europe’s democratic model. But perhaps now that it is published in an official document, European leaders will at last understand that the situation is grave. And if the document is too lengthy or vague for them, it can be summarised in clear and succinct terms: the current US government believes that its national security is most enhanced by the destruction of liberal democracy in Europe. In other words, the US is not only an reluctant ally; it is a deliberate adversary. It is time to act accordingly.
A seasoned gaming analyst with over a decade of experience in online casinos, specializing in slot machine strategies and player psychology.