Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.