The Way The Strange Season Shattered the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mold.

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still