Trump's Ukrainian Peace Proposal Represents a Advantage to Putin

For a brief period, the former US president seemed to take a firm stance concerning Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "severe consequences" in August in case Putin persisted blocking peace negotiations, he eventually imposed substantial penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly hindered Putin's capacity to support his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or European input, Trump has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's plan would essentially favor the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the plan actually undermine that essential sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his business experience, Trump persists to view the war as a simple land disagreement, as if ceding Putin a section of Ukraine's land will appease the ruler. But, Russia's war is not simply about occupying a damaged area of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the accountable governance that his deepening authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While keeping in place the presently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would require the nation to surrender all of Donetsk region. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would render Ukrainian defenses critically weakened.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that are a critical barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, leaving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv in case he later opt to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would make future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to diminish the scale of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the proposal places no such constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Any Nazi ideology and practices must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. However, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader endanger his regime by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the proposal makes Russia promise not to "enter other states" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has breached comparable agreements in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a return of seized territory in the region to Ukrainian control – why should we believe Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "immediate joint defense action" should Russia resume its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the details vary from unclear to concerning. The plan would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent member states from positioning troops on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from restoring his reduced forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Reaction

A separate parallel deal reportedly would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an attack endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against future invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of Western powers, like Trump, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not